Tag Archives: McDonnell

Tuesday’s Election Results: What Happened and Why? by Nate Silver

Posted by Audiegrl

natesilver

Nate Silver, the Nostradamus of Statistics and Polls

538/Nate Silver—The outcome of all seven contests that we were tracking tonight appears settled, or very nearly so:

Virginia Governor: Republican Bob McDonnell wins by 17 points, toward the upper end of the range predicted by the pollsters, although not to anybody’s great surprise. Democrats had major turnout problems here; exit polls show that the electorate which turned out in Virginia supported McCain in last year’s election 51-43, almost exactly the opposite of the actual margin.

Creigh Deeds (left) and Bob McDonnell (right)

Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell

But Deeds also appears to have been the weaker candidate. The electorate was roughly spit on approval of Obama, but 20 percent of those who approved Obama nevertheless voted for McDonnell, while just 5 percent of those who disapproved Obama voted for Deeds.

New Jersey Governor: Republican Chris Christie wins 49-45. We had (somewhat tentatively) characterized the race as leaning Christie on the basis of superior enthusiasm and the incumbent rule. Corzine never polled at better than 44 percent in any individual poll of the race. It looked for a time like 44 or 45 percent might nevertheless have been enough to win him the election, but support for the third party candidate Chris Daggett collapsed, leaving him exposed.

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Candidates for governor, from left,: Incumbent Jon Corzine, Chris Christie and Chris Daggett

Obama approval was actually pretty strong in New Jersey, at 57 percent, but 27 percent of those who approved of Obama nevertheless voted for someone other than Corzine. This one really does appear to be mostly about Corzine being an unappealing candidate, as the Democrats look like they’ll lose just one or two seats in the state legislature in Trenton. Corzine compounded his problems by staying negative until the bitter end of the campaign rather than rounding out his portfolio after having closed the margin with Christie.

NY-23: Democrat Bill Owens prevails in a result that will be regarded as surprising; the final tally isn’t in yet but it appears as though it will be something on the

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Doug Hoffman (C), Bill Owens (D) and Dede Scozzafava (R) battled for upstate New York’s 23rd Congressional District

order of 50-45 over Conservative Doug Hoffman. I don’t think I’ve ever hedged more on predicting the outcome of a race; the main issue is that there was a rather large discrepancy between the polling, which heavily favored Hoffman, and what I perceived to be the facts on the ground. NY-23 is solidly Republican but not especially conservative (it voted for Barack Obama last year), and Hoffman was a relatively uncharismatic candidate with poor command of the local issues.

If New Jersey was a win for the incumbent rule, then NY-23 may have ben a win for the Median voter theorem, as Owens — a conservative Democrat — was actually much closer to the average ideology of the district than the capital-C Conservative Hoffman. It was also a reminder that all politics is local (sometimes). More than 95 percent of Hoffman’s contributions came from out-of-district, and the conservative activists who tried to brand him as a modern-day Jefferson Smith never bothered to check whether he resonated particularly well with the zeitgeist of the district. In any event, this is a Democratic takeover of a GOP-held seat and they expand by one their majority in the House.

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Right-Wing Media and Polititians Roots Against America: Nobel Prize Edition

Posted by Audiegrl

The reaction from the right wing today is no less shameful than when they gleefully cheered when we lost the 2016 Olympic bid last week. Just ask yourself this. If today President McCain, after only being in office 9 months, had been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, what would the right-wing be doing? You got it, popping the champagne corks right about now…

Here’s a little video by Media Matters giving us a telling compilation of the conservative outrage…

Glenn Beck

glenn-beck-220x300Of all things, the Nobel Peace Prize should be turned down by Barack Obama and given — you ready for this, oh this one’s going to make headlines — should be give to the Tea Party goers and the 9-12 Project. … Because of the arrogance of the progressives that thought no one would stand in their way. That he would be able to accomplish everything. Two weeks into his presidency, they nominated him for it and said, “oh this is going to be a slam dunk.” Because of the Tea Party goers and the 9-12 Project people that stood in his way and stopped him from accomplishing the things that he thought, “please, I’m the Messiah, I’ll be able to accomplish that.”–Glenn Beck

Link to the audio/video

Rush Limbaugh

rushlimbaugh“The Nobel gang just suicide-bombed themselves. Gore, Carter, Obama, soon Bill Clinton. See a pattern here? They are all leftist sell-outs. George Bush liberates 50 million Muslims in Iraq, Reagan liberates hundreds of millions of Europeans and saves parts of Latin America. Any awards?” Limbaugh says “Obama gives speeches trashing his own country and for that gets a prize, which is now worth as much as whatever prizes they are putting in Cracker Jacks these days.”

We all agree with the Taliban and Iran” that Obama does not deserve Nobel…I think that everybody is laughing. Our president is a worldwide joke. Folks, do you realize something has happened here that we all agree with the Taliban and Iran about and that is he doesn’t deserve the award. Now that’s hilarious, that I’m on the same side of something with the Taliban, and that we all are on the same side as the Taliban.“–Rush Limbaugh

Link to the audio/video

Michelle Malkin

michelle-malkinWorld apology tour” has “paid huge dividends,” “ultimate act of global affirmative action

On her website: Isn’t it so fitting? From community organizer to Illinois state senator (present!) to U.S. Senator for 143 days before moving into the White House…and now, the recipient of a Nobel Peace Prize — not for anything he’s actually done, but for the symbolism of what he might possibly accomplish sometime way off in the future—Michelle Malkin

She also took the opportunity to post this graphic from another right wing blog.

Nobelol

Link to the audio/video

Chip Reid

chip_reid_x200CBS’ Chip Reid asks Gibbs whether Obama “consider[ed] turning” Nobel Prize “down,” suggests award is “a partisan thing” and Nobel Committee “supports liberal causes“.

In a follow-up question, Reid said: “I think the point a lot of your favorite people, pundits, have been making is that the response to this has been like this — I mean, most Democrats have praised it and most Republicans have said, you have got to be kidding me. Ronald Reagan didn’t get one, but Barack Obama, nominated 12 days after he was sworn in, gets a Nobel Peace Prize. And the fear among some, even some Democrats, is that this is going to widen the partisan divide and make things even more difficult to accomplish on every front.

View the video

Matt Drudge

mattdrudge220Today, Matt Drudge linked to an Associated Press analysis headlined, “He won, but for what?” with the Drudge headline: “‘For What’? Will He Turn It Down?

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Mark Halperin

mark_halperin_x200I predict right now that he will find a way to basically turn it down. … Because there is no upside.” On MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Time’s Mark Halperin said, “I predict right now that he will find a way to basically turn it down. I share this with the world or whatever. I don’t think he’ll embrace this. Because there is no upside for him.

John Bolton

John Bolton220In an October 9 post on National Review Online’s blog, The Corner, Robert Costa quoted former United Nations ambassador John Bolton as saying, “He should decline it and then ask to be considered again in three or four years when he has a record.

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Mary Katharine Ham

marykatherineham220 Weekly Standard blogger Mary Katharine Ham wrote of Kaus’ “great suggestion“: “I think I would heartily approve of Obama’s doing it, and I’m a rather tough audience for him. Could his ego allow it?

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RNC Chairman Michael Steele

michael steele.jpg-thumb-280x392-33229“The real question Americans are asking is, “What has President Obama actually accomplished?” It is unfortunate that the president’s star power has outshined tireless advocates who have made real achievements working towards peace and human rights. One thing is certain — President Obama won’t be receiving any awards from Americans for job creation, fiscal responsibility, or backing up rhetoric with concrete action.”

To be fair, a couple of statements from the grownups (this time) in the Republican Party

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John McCain

john_mccain_official_portrait_20091220I think all of us were surprised at the decision,” he said. But I think Americans are always pleased when their president is recognized by something on this order.”

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Tim Pawlenty

tim-pawlenty220During the WCCO radio show, “Lou from St. Paul” called in to say: “I haven’t heard you congratulate the president on receiving the Nobel Prize….What is it you’re waiting for?

Pawlenty responded: “I would say regardless of the circumstances, congratulations to President Obama for winning the Nobel Prize. I know there will be some people who are saying “Was it based on good intentions and thoughts or is it going to be based on good results?” But I think the appropriate response is when anybody wins a Nobel Prize that is a very noteworthy development and designation and I think the appropriate response is to say “Congratulations.”

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger

20090816_mms_a07_459.jpgMaria and I applaud President Obama for winning the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize. The President has consistently shown that he is committed to reaching out to other nations and positioning America to once again be the global leader for peace and prosperity. This is a great honor for our country and reminds us all of the promise our nation holds. I look forward to working with him to address future challenges facing our nation. On behalf of all Californians, I congratulate President Obama for winning this inspiring award.

Bob McDonnell (Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee)

bob-mcdonnell-stock-cropped-proto-custom_6McDonnell said he’d been on the road and had not extensively read the committee’s reasoning for the award, other than that it had to do with Obama’s diplomatic efforts. But he said he was pleased with anything that “brings accolades to the United States.” And then he repeated, “I’m delighted to see him win the award.

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